Kumjikelo wokuhla wowama-2023, amagama aphambili anjengokuyeka emsebenzini, ukusika iiodolo, kunye nokucinywa kwebhanki kukuqhuba kumzi-mveliso we-chip onamafu.
Ngo-2024, ezele yintelekelelo, loluphi utshintsho olutsha, iindlela ezintsha kunye namathuba amatsha aya kuba nawo ishishini le-semiconductor?
1. Imarike iya kukhula nge-20%
Kutshanje, uphando lwamva nje lwe-International Data Corporation (IDC) lubonisa ukuba ingeniso ye-semiconductor yehlabathi ngo-2023 yehla nge-12.0% unyaka nonyaka, yafikelela kwi-526.5 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, kodwa ingaphezulu koqikelelo lwe-arhente ye-519 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngoSeptemba.Kulindeleke ukuba ikhule nge-20.2% unyaka nonyaka ukuya kwi-633 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2024, ukusuka kuqikelelo lwangaphambili lwe-626 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Ngokoqikelelo lwe-arhente, ukubonakala kokukhula kwe-semiconductor kuya kunyuka njengolungiso lwempahla yexesha elide kumacandelo amabini amakhulu emarike, iPC kunye ne-smartphone, ifade, kunye namanqanaba oluhluiimotokunye nemizi-mveliso kulindeleke ukuba ibuyele kumanqanaba aqhelekileyo kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2024 njengoko umbane uqhubeka nokuqhuba ukukhula komxholo we-semiconductor kule minyaka ilishumi izayo.
Kuyaphawuleka ukuba kuqatshelwe ukuba amacandelo entengiso anendlela yokubuyela umva okanye ukukhula ngokukhawuleza ngo-2024 zii-smartphones, iikhompyuter zobuqu, iiseva, iimoto, kunye neemarike ze-AI.
1.1 Ifowuni ye-Smart
Emva kweminyaka ephantse ibe mithathu yokuhla, imakethi ye-smartphone ekugqibeleni yaqala ukunyuka ukusuka kwikota yesithathu ka-2023.
Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-Counterpoint yophando, emva kweenyanga ezingama-27 ezilandelelanayo zokwehla konyaka-ngonyaka kwintengiso ye-smartphone yehlabathi, umthamo wokuqala wokuthengisa (oko kukuthi, ukuthengiswa kweentengiso) ngo-Okthobha we-2023 yenyuka nge-5% unyaka nonyaka.
I-Canalys ibikezela ukuthunyelwa kwe-smartphone yeminyaka epheleleyo kuya kufikelela kwi-1.13 yeebhiliyoni zeeyunithi kwi-2023, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ikhule i-4% ukuya kwi-1.17 yeeyunithi zebhiliyoni ngo-2024. Imarike ye-smartphone kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwiiyunithi ze-1.25 zeebhiliyoni ezithunyelwa ngo-2027, kunye nezinga lokukhula ngonyaka. 2023-2027) ye-2.6%.
USanyam Chaurasia, umhlalutyi ophezulu eCanalys, uthe, "Ukuphindaphinda kwee-smartphones ngo-2024 kuya kuqhutywa ziimarike ezisakhulayo, apho ii-smartphones zihlala ziyinxalenye yonxibelelwano, ukuzonwabisa kunye nemveliso."I-Chaurasia ithi enye kwii-smartphones ezintathu ezithunyelwa kwi-2024 ziya kuvela kummandla we-Asia-Pacific, ukusuka kwi-5 ukuya kwi-2017. ngeepesenti ezi-6 ngonyaka.
Kuyafaneleka ukukhankanya ukuba ikhonkco langoku leshishini leefowuni ezihlakaniphile likhulile kakhulu, ukhuphiswano lwesitokhwe lubukhali, kwaye kwangaxeshanye, ukuveliswa kwezinto ezintsha zenzululwazi kunye nezobuchwepheshe, ukuphuculwa kwemizi-mveliso, uqeqesho lwetalente kunye neminye imiba itsala ishishini leefowuni ezihlakaniphile ukuqaqambisa intlalontle yayo. ixabiso.
1.2 IiKhompyutha zoBuqu
Ngokoqikelelo lwamva nje lwe-TrendForce Consulting, ukuthunyelwa kweencwadana zehlabathi kuya kufikelela kwi-167 yezigidi zeeyunithi ngo-2023, phantsi kwe-10.2% unyaka nonyaka.Nangona kunjalo, njengoko uxinzelelo lwempahla luyehla, imakethi yehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba ibuyele kumjikelo wobonelelo olusempilweni kunye nemfuno ngo-2024, kwaye isikali sokuhanjiswa kwentengiso yeencwadana kulindeleke ukuba sifikelele kwi-172 yezigidi zeeyunithi ngo-2024, ukonyuka konyaka nge-3.2% .Owona mfutho uphambili wokukhula uvela kwimfuno yokutshintshwa kwemarike yeshishini lesiphelo, kunye nokwandiswa kwee-Chromebooks kunye neelaptops ze-e-sports.
I-TrendForce iphinde yakhankanya imeko yophuhliso lwePC ye-AI kwingxelo.I-arhente ikholelwa ukuba ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu zokuphucula isofthiwe kunye ne-hardware ehambelana ne-AI PC, uphuhliso lokuqala luya kugxininisa kubasebenzisi bezoshishino abaphezulu kunye nabadali bomxholo.Ukuvela kwe-AI PCS akuzukukhuthaza imfuno eyongezelelweyo yokuthengwa kwePC, uninzi lwayo oluya kuthi ngokwendalo lutshintshele kwizixhobo zePC ze-AI kunye nenkqubo yokutshintsha ishishini ngo-2024.
Kwicala labathengi, isixhobo se-PC sangoku sinokubonelela ngezicelo ze-AI zelifu ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zobomi bemihla ngemihla, ukuzonwabisa, ukuba akukho sicelo sokubulala i-AI kwixesha elifutshane, sibeka phambili ingqiqo yokuphucula amava e-AI, kuya kuba nzima ngokukhawuleza ukwandisa ukuthandwa AI PC yabathengi.Nangona kunjalo, ekuhambeni kwexesha, emva kokusetyenziswa kwezicelo zezixhobo ze-AI ezihlukeneyo ziphuhliswa kwixesha elizayo, kwaye ixabiso lexabiso liyancipha, izinga lokungena kwe-AI PCS yabathengi lisenokulindelwa.
1.3 Iiseva kunye namaZiko eDatha
NgokukaTrendforce uqikelelo, iiseva ze-AI (kubandakanywa neGPU,FPGA, ASIC, njl.) iya kuthumela ngaphezu kwe-1.2 yezigidi zeeyunithi kwi-2023, kunye nokunyuka konyaka kwe-37.7%, i-akhawunti ye-9% yokuthunyelwa kweseva yonke, kwaye iya kukhula ngaphezu kwe-38% kwi-2024, kwaye iiseva ze-AI ziya kuphendula. ngaphezulu kwe-12%.
Ngezicelo ezinje ngee-chatbots kunye nobukrelekrele bokuvelisa, ababoneleli bezisombululo ezinkulu zelifu banyuse utyalo-mali lwabo kubukrelekrele bokwenziwa, beqhuba imfuno yeeseva ze-AI.
Ukusukela ngo-2023 ukuya kowama-2024, imfuno yeeseva ze-AI iqhutywa ikakhulu lutyalo-mali olusebenzayo lwababoneleli besisombululo selifu, kwaye emva kowama-2024, iya kwandiswa kwiindawo ezininzi zezicelo apho iinkampani zityala imali kwiimodeli ze-AI kunye nophuhliso lwenkonzo yesoftware, eqhuba ukukhula kwezicelo. edge iiseva ze-AI zixhotyiswe nge-Gpus ephantsi-kunye nephakathi.Kulindeleke ukuba umndilili wokukhula wonyaka wokuthunyelwa kwe-AI server uya kuba ngaphezulu kwe-20% ukusuka ngo-2023 ukuya ku-2026.
1.4 Izithuthi zamandla amatsha
Ngokuqhubela phambili okuqhubekayo kwendlela entsha yokuphucula, imfuno yeechips kushishino lweemoto iyanda.
Ukusuka kulawulo lwenkqubo yamandla esisiseko ukuya kwiinkqubo zoncedo lwabaqhubi (ADAS), ubuchwepheshe obungaqhubi kunye neenkqubo zokuzonwabisa zemoto, kukho ukuthembela okukhulu kwiitshiphusi ze-elektroniki.Ngokweenkcukacha ezinikezelwe nguMbutho waseTshayina wabavelisi beemoto, inani leetshiphusi zeemoto ezifunekayo kwizithuthi zamafutha emveli yi-600-700, inani leetshiphusi zeemoto ezifunekayo kwizithuthi zombane liya kwanda ukuya kwi-1600 / isithuthi, kunye nemfuno yeetshiphusi zemoto. Izithuthi ezikrelekrele eziphucukileyo kulindeleke ukuba zinyuke ziye kuma-3000 / isithuthi.
Idatha efanelekileyo ibonisa ukuba ngo-2022, ubungakanani bemarike ye-automotive chip malunga ne-310 yebhiliyoni ye-yuan.Kwimarike yaseTshayina, apho amandla amatsha anamandla, ukuthengiswa kwezithuthi zaseChina kwafikelela kwi-4.58 yetriliyoni ye-yuan, kwaye imarike ye-automotive chip yaseChina yafikelela kwi-121.9 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan.Ukuthengiswa kwe-auto yaseTshayina kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwi-31 yezigidi zeeyunithi ngo-2024, inyuke nge-3% ukusuka kunyaka ongaphambili, ngokutsho kwe-CAAM.Phakathi kwabo, ukuthengiswa kweemoto zabahambi malunga ne-26.8 yezigidi zeeyunithi, ukwanda kwe-3.1 ekhulwini.Ukuthengiswa kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha kuya kufikelela malunga ne-11.5 yezigidi zeeyunithi, ukwanda kwe-20% ngonyaka.
Ukongeza, izinga lokungena ngobukrelekrele bezithuthi zamandla amatsha nalo liyanda.Kumbono wemveliso ka-2024, amandla obulumko aya kuba lisikhokelo esibalulekileyo esigxininiswa zimveliso ezininzi ezintsha.
Oku kuthetha ukuba imfuno yeechips kwimarike yeemoto kunyaka olandelayo isenkulu.
2. Iindlela zobuchwepheshe boshishino
2.1AI Chip
I-AI ibikho kuyo yonke i-2023, kwaye iya kuhlala iligama elibalulekileyo ngo-2024.
Imarike yeetshiphusi ezisetyenziselwa ukwenza i-Artificial Intelligence (AI) imithwalo yomsebenzi ikhula ngesantya esingaphezulu kwama-20% ngonyaka.Ubungakanani bemakethi yechip ye-AI buya kufikelela kwi-53.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola ngo-2023, ukwanda kwe-20.9% ngaphezu kwe-2022, kwaye iya kukhula nge-25.6% ngo-2024 ukuya kufikelela kwi-67.1 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.Ngo-2027, ingeniso yetshiphu ye-AI kulindeleke ukuba iphindeke kabini ubungakanani bemarike ka-2023, ifikelele kwi-119.4 yeebhiliyoni zeedola.
Abahlalutyi bakaGartner babonisa ukuba ukusasazwa ngobuninzi bexesha elizayo beetshiphusi ze-AI kuya kuthatha indawo yoyilo lwangoku lwe-chip (i-discrete Gpus) ukulungiselela ubuninzi bemisebenzi esekwe kwi-AI, ngakumbi ezo zisekwe kwitekhnoloji ye-AI yokuvelisa.
2.2 2.5/3D Advanced Packaging market
Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, ngokuvela kwenkqubo yokwenziwa kwetshiphu, inkqubela phambili yophinda-phindo “yoMthetho kaMoore” iye yacotha, nto leyo ekhokelele ekunyukeni okubukhali kwexabiso eliphantsi lokukhula kokusebenza kwetshiphu.Ngelixa uMthetho kaMoore uye wehla, imfuno yekhompyutha iye yanda kakhulu.Ngophuhliso olukhawulezayo lwamasimi asahlumayo anje ngecomputing yelifu, idatha enkulu, ubukrelekrele bokwenziwa, kunye nokuqhuba ngokuzimela, iimfuno zokusebenza kakuhle kweetshiphusi zamandla ekhompyuter ziya zinyuka ngokunyuka.
Ngaphantsi kwemiceli mngeni emininzi kunye neendlela, ishishini le-semiconductor liqalise ukuphonononga indlela entsha yophuhliso.Phakathi kwabo, ukupakishwa okuphambili kuye kwaba ngumzila obalulekileyo, odlala indima ebalulekileyo ekuphuculeni ukuhlanganiswa kwe-chip, ukunciphisa umgama we-chip, ukukhawuleza ukudibanisa kombane phakathi kwee-chips, kunye nokuphucula ukusebenza.
I-2.5D ngokwayo ingumlinganiselo ongekho kwihlabathi lenjongo, kuba ubuninzi bayo obudibeneyo budlula i-2D, kodwa ayikwazi ukufikelela kwi-3D edibeneyo, ngoko kuthiwa yi-2.5D.Kwintsimi yokupakisha okuphambili, i-2.5D ibhekisela ekudityanisweni komgangatho ophakathi, okwangoku ngoku ininzi eyenziwe ngezinto ze-silicon, ithatha inzuzo yenkqubo yayo ekhulileyo kunye neempawu zoqhagamshelwano oluphezulu.
Itekhnoloji yokupakisha ye-3D kunye ne-2.5D ihluke kwi-high-density interconnection ngokusebenzisa i-intermediary layer, i-3D ithetha ukuba akukho maleko e-intermediary efunekayo, kwaye i-chip idibaniswe ngokuthe ngqo nge-TSV (nge-teknoloji ye-silicon).
I-IDC ye-International Data Corporation iqikelela ukuba imakethi yokupakisha ye-2.5/3D kulindeleke ukuba ifikelele kwinqanaba lokukhula lonyaka elihlanganisiweyo (CAGR) le-22% ukusuka ngo-2023 ukuya ku-2028, eyona ndawo ixhalabisa kakhulu kwimarike yovavanyo lokupakisha lwe-semiconductor kwixesha elizayo.
2.3 HBM
I-chip ye-H100, i-H100 ye-nude ithatha indawo engundoqo, kukho izitaki ezintathu ze-HBM kwicala ngalinye, kunye nendawo yokudibanisa ye-HBM ezintandathu ilingana ne-H100 ye-nude.Ezi zitshiphu zememori ezintandathu eziqhelekileyo zingomnye "wabagwenxa" bokunqongophala kwe-H100 yokubonelela.
I-HBM ithatha inxalenye yendima yememori kwi-GPU.Ngokungafaniyo nememori ye-DDR yemveli, i-HBM igcina imemori emininzi ye-DRAM kwicala elithe nkqo, enganyusi nje umthamo wememori, kodwa ilawula ukusetyenziswa kwamandla ememori kunye nendawo ye-chip kakuhle, inciphisa indawo ehlala ngaphakathi kwiphakheji.Ukongeza, i-HBM ifezekisa i-bandwidth ephezulu kwisiseko sememori ye-DDR yemveli ngokwandisa kakhulu inani lezikhonkwane ukufikelela kwimemori yebhasi ye-1024 bits ububanzi kwi-HBM stack.
Uqeqesho lwe-AI luneemfuno eziphezulu zokusukela i-throughput kunye ne-data transmission latency, ngoko ke i-HBM nayo ifunwa kakhulu.
Kwi-2020, izisombululo ze-ultra-bandwidth ezimelwe yimemori ye-bandwidth ephezulu (HBM, HBM2, HBM2E, HBM3) yaqala ukuvela ngokuthe ngcembe.Emva kokungena kwi-2023, ukwanda okuphambeneyo kwemarike yokuvelisa ubukrelekrele bokwenziwa obumelwe yi-ChatGPT yonyuse imfuno yeeseva ze-AI ngokukhawuleza, kodwa kwakhona ikhokelele ekwandeni kokuthengiswa kweemveliso eziphezulu ezifana ne-HBM3.
Uphando lwe-Omdia lubonisa ukuba ukusuka kwi-2023 ukuya ku-2027, izinga lokukhula lonyaka lengeniso yemarike ye-HBM kulindeleke ukuba inyuke nge-52%, kwaye isabelo sayo sengeniso yemarike ye-DRAM kulindeleke ukuba inyuke ukusuka kwi-10% ngo-2023 ukuya phantse i-20% ngo-2027. ixabiso le-HBM3 limalunga namaxesha amahlanu ukuya kwathandathu kwelo leetshiphusi zeDRAM eziqhelekileyo.
2.4 Unxibelelwano ngeSathelayithi
Kubasebenzisi abaqhelekileyo, lo msebenzi unokuzikhethela, kodwa kubantu abathanda imidlalo enzima, okanye basebenze kwiimeko ezinzima ezifana neentlango, le teknoloji iya kuba yinto esebenzayo, kwaye "isindisa ubomi".Unxibelelwano lwesathelayithi luba yindawo yokulwa elandelayo ekujoliswe kuyo ngabavelisi beefowuni eziphathwayo.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jan-02-2024