Ayisiyiyo i-real estate kuphela ekufuneka isuswe, kodwa kunye neeselfowuni.
Ngokutsho kwengcali yophando ngeselfowuni uMing-Chi Kuo,oomatshini Androidbajongene nomngcipheko we-inventory ephezulu, e-Xiaomi malunga ne-20-30 yezigidi zeeselfowuni kwi-inventory yezixhobo zeselfowuni, eyona mfumba inamandla yiprosesa, iiselfowuni ze-Samsung kunye noluhlu lwazo lwamacandelo, kulindeleke ukuba ngoJuni zincitshiswe emanzini aqhelekileyo. inqanaba.
NgoMeyi ophelileyo, imboni ye-smartphone yaseTshayina yothuse uluhlu lwe-smartphone ye-30 yezigidi, ukuwa kwesantya kunokuba bekulindelwe, ukuya kwikota ezintathu, inkqubo yasekhaya ye-Android inkqubo ye-cell phone chain abakhiqizi be-chip kunye nomsesane waqhubeka nokunyuka, izabelo ze-Weir, i-Jusheng micro kunye ne-Huideng iteknoloji, Iintsuku zentengiso ye-inventri zigqithise kwinqanaba eliphakathi malunga neminyaka emithathu, ngelixa ukuthunyelwa kwe-smartphone jikelele kulo nyaka uphelileyo, kwehle kweyona ndawo iphantsi ukusukela ngo-2013.
Iiselfowuni zasekhaya ezikumgangatho ophantsi kunye nophakathi zingenisa imfazwe engazange ibonwe ngaphambili, iimodeli eziphezulu ze-Apple zikwakucuthwa kwamaxabiso anqabileyo, ukusilela kwangoku kwimiba yoluhlu lweeselfowuni ixesha elingaphezu konyaka, indlela yokubandakanya kunye nokothusa ekhaya kunye. Iselfowuni yangaphandle ikhonkco kushishino lwezixhobo ze-elektroniki?Luza kususwa nini uluhlu lwempahla?Funda eli nqaku kwaye uya kufunda malunga.
1. Xiaomi, Samsung cell phone inventory imeko
2. indlela abavelisi cell phone kwi-inventri
3. Ukusebenza kwamva nje kwekhonkco lokubonelela ngeeselfowuni
01 The Great Android Recession
Imfuno ephantsi kunye nephakathi kuluhlu yeyona imbi kakhulu
Oomatshini be-Android bajongene nomngcipheko we-inventory ephezulu, kunye nokukhutshwa kwe-inventory kukho ukudodobala okukhulu, ngenxa yemfuno ebuthathaka yamacandelo kunye namacandelo avela kwiimpawu okanye abahambisa / abathengisi, iingcali zikholelwa ukuba kwiinyanga ezizayo ze-6-9 ziya kubona inani elikhulu ukuthunyelwa ngonyaka-ngonyaka izinga lokukhula liyehla.
Ingeniso yeshishini leselfowuni ye-Xiaomi yehle nge-11.1% unyaka nonyaka kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, kunye nokuthunyelwa kwe-smartphone kwehle nge-8.4% unyaka nonyaka ukuya kwi-40 yezigidi zeeyunithi kunye neeselfowuni ze-ASP zehla nge-3% ukuya kwi-1,058 yuan.
Unyuselo lwesaphuleloisaqhubeka, kutsha nje uMongameli weQela le-Xiaomi uLu Weibing uthe ixabiso leRedmiK60 yalo entsha, ekhutshwe ngoDisemba, lehlisiwe laya kutsho kwi-2,999 ye-yuan kuphela kwi-12 + 512GB, ukuthotywa kwexabiso le-300 yuan, kunye nesiqinisekiso sexabiso abasebenzisi abasele beyithengile le nguqulo.
Enyanisweni, ngokukhushulwa ekupheleni konyaka ophelileyo, uluhlu lweeselfowuni ze-Xiaomi zenani elikhulu leemveliso eziphantsi kunye nexabiso eliphakathi liye lahla, kodwa ayikakhululekanga ngokupheleleyo kumngcipheko woluhlu oluphezulu.Uluhlu lwayo “lwempahla eyenziweyo” lufikelele kwi-27.3 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan kwikota yesithathu ka-2022, ezantsi ukusuka kunyaka ophelileyo, kodwa lubalelwa kwi-65% yengeniso yeselfowuni kwikota yesithathu.
Umphathi wenkampu ye-Android yehlabathi ukusebenza kwe-Samsung nayo ayinathemba.
Ingeniso ye-Samsung Electronics yekota yesine ka-2022 yehla ngeepesenti ezisi-8 kunyaka-enyakeni kwaye ingeniso yokusebenza yayingaphantsi kunoko bekuqikelelwe ngaphambili, phakathi kwezinye izinto, ukuthengiswa okucothayo kwee-smartphones kwicandelo layo le-MX (Mobile eXperience).Icandelo le-MX le-Samsung liyinxalenye yeqela leshishini le-DX (Isixhobo se-eXperience), kwaye ingeniso yayo yehle nge-4% unyaka nonyaka kunye ne-10% ngokulandelelana kwikota yesine ka-2022 xa idityaniswa nengeniso evela kwizixhobo zasekhaya kunye nezinye iimveliso.
Ukuma kwefowuni yeselula, iitshiphusi zeselfowuni kunye nezinye izixhobo ze-elektroniki ziyimfumba ephezulu, indlela yokwetyisa ezi zitokhwe, abavelisi beefowuni benze umsebenzi wabo wasekhaya.I-chip majors ibonise ukuba imfuno kwi-low-end kunye ne-mid-range ye-cell phone market yeyona nto ibuthathaka kakhulu xa kuthelekiswa ne-high-end cell phone market.Ngapha koko, kwi-1000-3000 yexabiso le-yuan kwindawo ephantsi kunye nephakathi kuluhlu lweeselfowuni zeselfowuni, ii-smartphones zasekhaya zigubungela olona luhlu lubanzi kwakhona.
Eyona nto ithe ngqo yi-concessions, imfazwe yamaxabiso, abavelisi beefowuni eziqhelekileyo bakwi-"6.18", "Double 11" kunye nezinye iindawo ezibalulekileyo zexesha lokunyuswa okukhulu.NgoNovemba ophelileyo, imarike yeeselfowuni yangenisa i-carnival "yokulinda", inkampu ye-Android, i-yuan eyi-2000 inokuthenga ukucwangciswa kokusebenza okulinganayo "komatshini webhakethi", ￥1000 ixabiso lingaphezulu ukuvumela abantu bathathe iliso.￥2000-3000 isibiyeli se Ukuthotywa kwexabiso kudla ngokuba yeyona nto icacileyo.
Iifowuni ze-Apple ngaphandle kwenkampu ye-Android, nazo zirhanelwa ukuba zithatha inxaxheba kwinkqubo yokunciphisa ixabiso, kunyaka odlulileyo iiselfowuni ze-Apple zisanda kukhululwa ngaphantsi kwenyanga, ukongeza kwiimodeli eziphezulu zeemodeli eziqhelekileyo zawela ngaphantsi kwe-5200 yuan, ukususela ngoFebruwari 5. Ngonyaka, i-Apple nayo inqabile ukuthotywa kwamaxabiso, imodeli ephezulu ye-iPhone 14 Pro uthotho lweevenkile ezigunyazisiweyo ezingaxhunyiwe kwi-intanethi ngokubanzi zinciphisa amaxabiso malunga ne-700 yuan, imakethi ye-smartphone yehlabathi ingenisa kumzuzu omnyama.
Abavelisi ekusungulweni kweuqwalaselo lomatshini omtsha, inokuthi isekelwe ekuqwalaselweni kwe-inventory, bayazi "iwayini endala kwiibhotile ezintsha", eyona nto i-intuitive imodeli ingasetyenziselwa ukuhambelana okuncinci.
Abanye abasebenzisi abanolwazi bathi kulo nyaka, sibona iimveliso ezininzi, kunye neemveliso eziphambili, ziqhubeka nokusebenzisa izinto ezindala kakhulu, kwaye ezinye izinto ezinoluhlu olukhulu kufuneka zisetyenziswe kwiimodeli eziphambili, iimveliso zesebe azikwazi nje ukugaya uluhlu.
Ukuqala kwisiqingatha sesibini sika-2021, iiselfowuni ze-elektroniki zokusika ii-odolo sele ziqalisile ukubila, ngokwezibalo zeJiji Cat, iimodeli ezininzi ngo-2021 kuqwalaselo lweemveliso ezithile eziqhumayo ezidumileyo ukuze ziculwe kakuhle, emva koko zidweliswe ukuthengiswa ngo-2022.
Olunye uqwalaselo lwakudala lweminyaka edlulileyo ngo-2022 lusenokuhlala lubona, njengeQualcomm Snapdragon 870, i-Snapdragon 778, amanqanaba efowuni ye-CMOS IMX766, indibaniselwano yekhamera engaphantsi kwe-8 + 2 MP, igiya entsha yasentwasahlobo kubandakanya iimveliso zeflegi. , kubandakanywa iimveliso eziphambili nganye, sitshica uphuculo ayicacanga, kwaye abanye bade behliselwe.
Ixesha elide, umjikelo wokutshintshwa kwemvumelwano yoshishino yayiziinyanga ezili-18, kodwa ngo-2022, umjikelo wokutshintshwa kwabathengi basekhaya wolulelwe kwiinyanga ezingama-30 nezingama-36.Inkokeli yecandelo lokubonelela ngeeselfowuni yathi ukusuka kwikota yesithathu neyesine ka-2021, ukucuthwa kwamaxabiso kuye kwaba ngumxholo ophambili wabenzi beeselfowuni, ukuhanjiswa kweemarike zeMediaTek kunye neQualcomm's processor chips ziye zaqala ukunciphisa amaxabiso.
Ukwehliswa kwexabiso lomatshini omtsha kuyaqhubeka ukuya ekuqaleni konyaka ka-2023, iifowuni eziphantsi, ixabiso lesondo leRedmi alisekho i-monopoly, i-Ace2, i-GT yenyani ye-GT Neo5 itshixa i-2000-3000 yexabiso le-yuan, igcina ingabi buthathaka kune- K60 uqwalaselo ngaxeshanye amaxabiso ukunyaniseka.
Abavelisi bakamva bajongana njani nokudodobala koqoqosho, mhlawumbi kulo nyaka “6.18″ umnyhadala wokuthenga unokubonwa – ngubani na amaxabiso antywila kakhulu, othengise kakubi, uxinzelelo lwempahla.
02 Iziphumo zamva nje zonikezelo lweselfowuni.
Ukutyibilika, Ubuthathaka
Izixhobo ze-elektroniki zefowuni ephathwayo, i-akhawunti yememori malunga ne-15-20%, iiprosesa kunye nezinye ii-chips akhawunti malunga ne-15-20%, izikrini zokubonisa i-10-20%, iikhamera 10-15%, i-RF / i-antenna 5-10%, ukongeza kumaqokobhe / iinxalenye zesakhiwo, iibhetri, FPC / PCB njalo njalo.
Ngo-2022, ikhonkco lokubonelela ngeeselfowuni lichaphazeleka ngokubanzi kukudodobala kwemfuno yabathengi, kwaye inqanaba le-inventri lihlala likhanya libomvu, lide likhokhelele kwilahleko yokusebenza, kubandakanya kodwa kungaphelelanga apho kwi-chip duo yeselfowuni yeMediaTek kunye neQualcomm, eTexas Izixhobo ezine. olona luhlu lubanzi lwabathengi, inkokeli yechip yeminwe yokuchonga iHuitian Technology, inkokeli yelensi yehlabathi jikelele uSunwoo Optical, abenzi beetshiphu zeRF basekhaya abaKhethelwe iMicro kunye neVTech, inkokeli yeMLCC uMurata, kunye nenkitha yabavelisi beetshiphu zememori, bengenisa imeko yentengiso enzima kakhulu ngo-2023. .
Ezi zilandelayo ziziphumo zamva nje zeselfowuni nganye enxulumene necandelo lenkampani ye-elektroniki.
Iiprosesa zeselfowuni kunye nezinye iitshiphusi
Ingeniso yeMediaTek's Q4 2022 yehle nge-25% unyaka nonyaka kunye ne-26% ngokulandelelana.Icandelo leshishini le-handset, elinegalelo le-52% yengeniso yeMediaTek kwikota yesine ka-2022, lehle nge-25% unyaka nonyaka kunye ne-30% ngokulandelelana ngenxa yokucotha kwe-China, imfuno yabathengi ebuthathaka kunye nohlengahlengiso lwe-OEM ye-smartphone njengabathengi ngokungqongqo. ukulungelelanisa uluhlu lwabo lweempahla, icandelo leMediaTek lihlaziye ingeniso kwikota yokuqala ye-2023 ukuya kwi-$ 300- $ 3.4 yezigidigidi, phantsi kwe-35- MediaTek yehlise ingeniso ukuya kwi-$ 300-3.4 yezigidigidi ze-Q1 2023, phantsi kwe-35-40% unyaka nonyaka kwaye I-3-12% ngokulandelelana, kwaye ikhokele amanqanaba e-inventory ukubuyela kwisiqhelo ekupheleni kwe-H1 2023.
Inxalenye yengeniso yecandelo le-CDMA Technologies (QCT) ye-Qualcomm yekota yokuqala yemali ka-2022/23, ebandakanya iitshiphusi ze-smartphone, izixhobo ze-RF ezingaphambili, iitshiphusi zemoto kunye nezixhobo ze-IoT, zinqabile iipesenti ezili-11 unyaka nonyaka, kunye nengeniso ye-handset yehle nge-18. ipesenti unyaka nonyaka.Ngenxa yemeko yezoqoqosho kunye nemfuno, inkampani iyayinciphisa ngakumbi inkcitho kwaye ngoku ilindele ukunyuka kwamanqanaba oluhlu lweempahla kwishishini le-handset ukuba liqhubeke kude kube sisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2023, kunye nokwehla ngakumbi kwi-3G, 4G kunye ne-5G yokuthunyelwa kwe-handset kunokwenzeka ngo-2023 xa kuthelekiswa. ukuya ku-2022.
Inkokeli ye-chip yokuchonga iminwe ye-Huideng Technology ilindele ukufumana inzuzo eseleyo kubanini benkampani engumzali ye-900 yezigidi zeeyuan ukuya kwi-600 yezigidi zeeyuan ngonyaka ka-2022, xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo lonyaka ophelileyo, eliya kukhokelela kwilahleko. .Esona sizathu siphambili sotshintsho ekusebenzeni kukuba uninzi lweemveliso zenkampani zixhomekeke kwimarike ye-smartphone, echatshazelwa yimeko yamazwe ngamazwe, i-macroeconomy kunye nobhubhane oluqhubekayo, olukhokelela ekunciphiseni okukhulu kweemarike kunye nemfuno yabathengi;ngelo xesha, ukhuphiswano oluphambili lwemveliso yenkampani luye lwaqinisa uxinzelelo lwexabiso lokuthengisa, okubangele ukuhla kwe-35% ukuya kwi-45% yonyaka-ngonyaka kwingeniso yokusebenza yenkampani ngo-2022. Kwi-fiscal 2022, ilungiselelo lokunciphisa izinto ezahlukeneyo zexabiso. kuqikelelwa ukusuka kwi-702 yezigidi zeedola ukuya kwi-872 yezigidi zeedola.
Iitshiphu zememori zeselfowuni
Ingeniso ye-Samsung Electronics 'Q4 2022 ihle nge-8%, inzuzo yokusebenza ihle ngama-69% unyaka nonyaka.Iqela leshishini le-DS (Isisombululo seSixhobo), elijongene ikakhulu ne-semiconductor kunye neshishini le-chip Foundry, libike ukuhla kwengeniso ye-24% kwikota yesine ka-2022 xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo kunye nokuhla kwe-13% ukusuka kwixesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo. ;ingeniso yayo kunyaka opheleleyo 2022 kwaba 9,846 billion won (malunga ne-79.9 yeebhiliyoni zeedola), ukwanda kwe-3% xa kuthelekiswa no-2021. Ukuhla kwengeniso yeli qela loshishino kwakungenxa yokufunxa kwe-inventory ye-client-side kunye namaxabiso aphantsi e-flash memory chip.
Ingeniso ye-SK Hynix yekota yesine ka-2022 yehle ngeepesenti ezingama-38 unyaka nonyaka, ngelahleko eyi-3.52 yetriliyoni ephumeleleyo (i-2.881 yeebhiliyoni zeedola), xa kuthelekiswa nengeniso ye-3.32 yezigidigidi ephumeleleyo (i-2.717 yeebhiliyoni zeedola) ngonyaka ngaphambili, i-SK Hynix yokuqala ngekota. ilahleko ukususela kwikota yesithathu ka-2012 kunye nelahleko enkulu yekota kwirekhodi.I-SK Hynix ihleli inethemba malunga nemfuno yentengiso kwikota yokuqala ka-2023, ilindele ukuba izinga lokukhula kokuthunyelwa kwe-chip ye-DRAM linokwehla ngaphezulu kwe-10% kwaye ukuwohloka kuya kuqhubeka kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka.
Ingeniso yeMicron yehle ngama-39% ngokulandelelanayo kunye ne-47% kunyaka-unyaka kwikota yokuqala yemali ka-2023. Ngenxa yokungahambelani okukhulu phakathi konikezelo kunye nemfuno ukuya ku-2023, iMicron ilindele ukuba ingeniso yoshishino ngokubanzi icele umngeni unyaka wonke.IMicron ithatha inyathelo eliqinisekileyo lokunciphisa unikezelo kunye neendleko.IMicron ithatha inyathelo eliqinisekileyo lokunciphisa unikezelo kunye neendleko.
Umboniso weselfowuni
Umboniso wasekhaya isigebenga BOE 2022 yokuqala kwiikota ezintathu ingeniso 132.744 billion yuan, phantsi 19.45% unyaka nonyaka;ingeniso efunyenweyo i-5.291 yeebhiliyoni zeeyuan, ihle ngama-73.75% unyaka nonyaka.Phakathi kwabo, ingeniso yekota yesithathu yayiyi-RMB 41.134 yezigidigidi, phantsi kwe-26.79% ngonyaka-ngonyaka;Ingeniso yesambuku eyayanyaniswa ngumama yayiyi-RMB 1.305 yebhiliyoni.I-2022 Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuSeptemba, inkampani yenza amalungiselelo okutshatyalaliswa kweempahla ezahlukeneyo ezifikelela kwi-RMB 7,482.22 yezigidi, kwaye ilahleko yokunciphisa ichaphazele inzuzo epheleleyo ye-RMB 2,957.17 yezigidi.
Ingeniso yeqela le-Samsung SDC (i-Samsung Display) kwikota yesine ka-2022 yayiyi-9.31 yetriliyoni ephumeleleyo (malunga ne-7.6 yeebhiliyoni zeedola), ihle nge-3% unyaka nonyaka kunye ne-1% ngokulandelelana;unyaka opheleleyo we-2022 ingeniso yayiyi-3.438 yezigidigidi iphumelele (malunga ne-$ 27.9 yezigidigidi), i-8% xa ithelekiswa ne-2021. I-Samsung yathi iipaneli ze-OLED zeefowuni eziphezulu azizange zichaphazeleke kakhulu, ingeniso ihlala iqinile.
Uluhlu lwe-chip luphinde lwavela izolo
Iza kuchacha nini?
Ushishino lweeselfowuni luye lwaba nemingeni kwi-inventory kwixesha elidlulileyo.
Kwi-2014, kunye nokufika kwexesha le-4G, abaqhubi abathathu abakhulu ukunciphisa i-subsidies, "i-China Cool Union" ukuchithwa, ishishini lesiteshi sasekhaya lathusa "i-200 yezigidi ze-inventri";Ikota yokuqala ka-2020 kuqhambuko lwesithsaba esitsha, izixhobo zivaliwe, ukuthunyelwa kwe-smartphone yaseTshayina engaphantsi kwezigidi ezingama-50, elona lisezantsi kwiikota ezilithoba zokugqibela, ukusukela ngoko ukungavinjwa kunye nokutsala ukusetyenziswa kwempindezelo, ikota yesibini yokuthunyelwa kwe-2020 ngaphezulu kwe-100 lezigidi.
Ukukhutshwa koluhlu lokuphela konyaka kuye kwaba ngumsebenzi wesiqhelo kubavelisi be-smartphone, njengokucutha okubalulekileyo kwikhonkco le-Android ukuphelisa izisombululo ezingezizo isikrini esigcweleyo ekupheleni kuka-2017, kunye nokunciphisa ukunqongophala kwezinto ezintsha kwi-Apple. iimodeli ekupheleni kwe2018.
Kumxholo wesiganeko seHuawei kunye nokungabikho kwe-core tide ngo-2021, abavelisi beefowuni bajongene nokhuphiswano olukhohlakeleyo kunye nomngcipheko we-inventory ukwandisa ukugcinwa kwempahla.Ukurhoxiswa kweHuawei, okubangela i-40% -50% yemarike yesizwe yeeselfowuni, kwenza ukuba abadlali beefowuni baqale ukuba nethemba ngokungaboni.Kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngo-2022, imeko yaseRashiya naseUkraine, ubhubhani wasekhaya, abathengi beeselfowuni ukuze bathathe indawo yokupholisa umoya, abantu abaninzi bakhetha ukuqhubeka “ngokucokisa”.
NgoMeyi ka-2022, amajelo eendaba achaza ukuhla komzi-mveliso we-smartphone wase-China “njengendlela yokuwohloka”, imboni yeeselfowuni sele inee-smartphones ezizizigidi ezingama-30 kwisitokhwe, kubandakanya ngaphezulu kwe-20 yezigidi zeemveliso ezigqityiweyo kunye neemveliso ezingaphezu kwezigidi ezili-10 ezigqityiweyo kunye nezinto eziphambili. ikhona evenkileni.I-Strategy Analytics ikhuphe ingxelo ebonisa ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwee-smartphone zehlabathi jikelele kwiiyunithi ezibhiliyoni ezi-1.2 ngo-2022 zikweyona ndawo isezantsi ukusukela ngo-2013.
Kwimakethi yasekhaya, imakethi ye-smartphone yaseTshayina iya kuthumela malunga ne-286 yezigidi zeeyunithi ngo-2022, ihle nge-13.2% unyaka nonyaka.Kwikota yesine, imakethi ye-smartphone yaseTshayina ithumele malunga ne-72.92 yezigidi zeeyunithi, phantsi kwe-12.6% unyaka nonyaka.
Imfuno engenako ukuvuswa iya kucinezela abenzi be-chip abaphezulu, iitshiphusi zeselfowuni zasekhaya, ngakumbi inkqubo ye-Android ijongene noxinzelelo olukhulu lwe-inventri.
Ngo-2022 i-Q3, uluhlu lwabavelisi betshiphu yeeselfowuni ze-Android lwasekhaya luqhubekile nokunyuka kumsesane ofanayo, ukuya kubenzi betshiphu yeeselfowuni yasekhaya i-Weir, i-Josun Micro kunye ne-Huideng Technology, umzekelo, iintsuku zokurhweba kweenkampani ezintathu. zisondele okanye zingaphezulu kweentsuku ezingama-250, zigqitha kumyinge wenqanaba leminyaka emithathu edlulileyo.Amanqanaba e-Inventory aye enyuka ngekota ngekota ukususela ngo-21Q1, kwaye ngo-22Q3 iintsuku zokubuya kwe-inventri zeenkampani ezintathu ziye zafikelela kuma-277, 284 kunye neentsuku ezingama-247 ngokulandelelanayo, zigqithise kakhulu kumyinge weentsuku ezili-113 zabenzi betshiphu yeeselfowuni zehlabathi.
Ukuthunyelwa kwe-smartphone ye-Global ihlala ibhala iziphumo ezibi kakhulu kwimbali, uluhlu oluyi-avareji lwee-chips zeselfowuni luqhubeka nokuseta ukuphakama okutsha, nangona ukuhla kweeselfowuni kuyinyani engenakuphikiswa, kodwa ngoku kwi-Great Recession xa ezantsi komjikelo we-chip, xa ukubuyiswa kwe-semiconductor, ukusebenza kwe-smartphone, kusavavanya ukuzithemba komntu wonke.
Ixesha lokuposa: Feb-24-2023