Amaxabiso e-chip ayancipha, iitshiphusi azithengiswa.Kwisiqingatha sokuqala se-2022, ngenxa yemfuno enqabileyo kwi-i-elektroniki yabathengikwimarike, ishishini letshiphu lakha langenisa isantya sokunciphisa amaxabiso, kwaye kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, iyelenqe liziphindaphinda.
Kutshanje, iindaba zeCCTV zinike ingxelo yokuba njengenxalenye ephambili yenkqubo yolawulo lwe-elektroniki,I-STMicroelectronicsIitshiphusi zakha zayenye yezona mveliso zifunwayo emva kwe-chip ngo-2021, kwaye isicatshulwa semarike sakha sanyuka saya kutsho malunga ne-3,500 ye-yuan, kodwa ngo-2022, i-chip efanayo yawa ukusuka phezulu ukuya malunga ne-600 ye-yuan, ithontsi ukuya kuma-80%.
Ngokuzenzekelayo, ixabiso lenye itshiphu kunyaka ophelileyo laliphindwe kalishumi kulo nyaka.Amaxabiso e-Chip athelekiseka nenyama yehagu, phezulu naphantsi, elona xabiso liphezulu kunye nokwahluka kwexabiso eliqhelekileyo langaphambili kubaxwa kakhulu, kuxelwa ukuba abeendaba baxele i-600 ye-yuan ye-STMicroelectronics chips, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo ngo-2020 ngamashumi ambalwa nje e-yuan.
I-chip craze ibonakala ngathi idlulile, ngaba ilifu elimnyama eligubungele isangqa se-tech kulo nyaka uphelileyo malunga nokunyuka?Ngokutsho kweBloomberg, uninzi lweenkampani ze-chip zikholelwa ukuba le marike ishushu iya kuba nenguqu enkulu kwixesha elizayo, kwaye abanye abantu banethemba lokuba imboni ye-semiconductor iya kuzisa ukuhla okubi kakhulu kwiminyaka elishumi.
Uvuyo olumbalwa, iintlungu ezimbalwa, amaxabiso e-chip avalanche, ngaphezu koshishino oluthe cwaka, ndiyoyika ukuba kukho iimarike ezingenakubalwa kwi-carnival.
01Itshiphu yehla, kodwa hayi ngokupheleleyo?
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eetshiphu akohlulwa kusetyenziso olucothayo lwehlabathi jikelele.
Ukususela kwingxelo yezemali ye-TSMC yamva nje, kunokubonwa ukuba ishishini le-smartphone, elakhe laxhasa isiqingatha selizwe, aliseyena mthombo omkhulu wengeniso, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba inxalenye yeli shishini iqhubeke nokuhla.NgokoPhando lwe-CINNO, ukuthunyelwa kwe-smartphone ye-SoC yaseTshayina kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2022 bekumalunga ne-134 yezigidi, phantsi malunga ne-16.9% unyaka nonyaka.
Ngokubhekiselele kwicala lePC, ngokutsho kwenkampani yophando lwemarike iMercury Research, kwikota yesibini yalo nyaka, ukuhanjiswa kweprosesa yekhompyuter yedesktop kwehle kwinqanaba elisezantsi phantse kwiminyaka engama-30, ukuthunyelwa kweprosesa iyonke yafumana ukwehla okukhulu konyaka nonyaka ukusukela ngo-1984. , Ukuthengiswa kwe-smartphone yaseMzantsi Korea kwawela i-29.2% ngonyaka-ngonyaka ngoJulayi, ikhompyutha kunye nezixhobo ezincedisayo ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-21.9%, kunye nokuthunyelwa kwememori yememori kwakhokelela ekunciphiseni kwe-13.5%.
Imfuno ephezulu yomlambo iyancipha, ii-odolo ezisezantsi ziyaqhubeka nokuhla, kwaye amaxabiso apholile ngokwendalo.
Nangona kunjalo, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba ezi chips ziye zanciphisa amaxabiso azidlali nayiphi na indima ekwenzeni ngokubanzi ishishini le-semiconductor.Ngaba iitshiphusi zehlile ngokwenene ngexabiso?Ngaphantsi kweendaba ze "plummeting", kusekho abavelisi abavakalisa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokuchasene nomkhwa, njenge-Intel, i-Qualcomm, i-Meiman Electronics, i-Broadcom, njl.
Ukuthatha i-Intel njengomzekelo, ngokutsho kukaNikkei, i-Intel iye yazisa abathengi ukuba iya kwandisa ixabiso leemveliso ze-semiconductor kwisiqingatha sesibini se-2022, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba inyuse ixabiso leemveliso ezininzi ezifana neeseva eziphambili kunye ne-CPU yekhompyutha. iiprosesa kunye chips peripheral, kwaye ukwanda kuyahluka ngokuxhomekeke kuhlobo chip, elona lisezantsi amadijithi enye, kwaye ukwanda eliphezulu kunokufikelela 10% ukuya 20%.
Ingaba ixabiso letshiphusi linyukile?Kunokuthiwa ixabiso leetshiphusi ze-elektroniki zabathengi liye lehla ngequbuliso ngenxa yokuhla kwemfuno, kodwa imfuno ye-MCUs kwezinye iindawo zesicelo iyaqhubeka isomelela, njengolawulo lweemoto kunye noshishino, olukhokelele kwixabiso eliphezulu chips ezinxulumene.Ukususela ekuqaleni kokuthunyelwa okungaqhelekanga kweefowuni eziphathwayo, ikamva leshishini le-chip liye labhalwa umdla njengokuthengisa okucothayo, kodwa enyanisweni, ukunqongophala kwe-chip kwamanye amashishini ayikapheli.
Ngokukodwa iitshiphusi zemoto, i-2022 China Nansha International Integrated Circuit Industry Forum data ibonisa ukuba iimveliso ze-chip zangoku zinokuhlangabezana kuphela nomndilili we-31% yeemfuno zabenzi beemoto, uXpeng Motors 'He Xiaopeng ukwathe ukunqongophala kwe-chip yemoto akukapheli. , I-GAC ngoJuni yanika idatha yokuba i-GAC ijongene nokunqongophala kwe-chip ukuya kuma-33,000 amaqhekeza kwikota yesibini.
Ishishini elitsha lamandla lihamba kakuhle, kwaye imfuno yeechips kwixesha elizayo ayinakujongelwa phantsi.Kuxelwe ukuba umndilili wemoto kufuneka usebenzise iitshiphusi ezingama-500,izithuthi zamandla amatshabaxhotyiswe ngeetshiphusi ezingaphezulu, kunyaka ophelileyo ukuthengiswa kweemoto zehlabathi malunga ne-81.05 yezigidi zeeyunithi, oko kukuthi, lonke ikhonkco loshishino lweemoto lifuna iitshiphusi ezibhiliyoni ezingama-40.5.
Ukongeza, iitshiphusi ezikumgangatho ophezulu zisephezulu kwisibingelelo sentengiso, kwelinye icala, ikhonkco leshishini elinyukayo lee-chips ezinobuchwephesha benkqubo ephambili ayizange iphele.Ngaphambili kwakuxelwe ukuba i-chip ye-TSMC ye-3nm iya kufezekisa imveliso eninzi ngoSeptemba, kwaye i-Apple iya kuba ngumthengi wokuqala ukusebenzisa i-chip ye-3nm ye-TSMC.
Kuxelwe ukuba i-Apple iya kubandakanya iprosesa entsha ye-A17 kulo nyaka uzayo, kunye neprosesa ye-M3, eya kusebenzisa i-nanometers ye-TSMC ye-3.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukho ukunqongophala kwezixhobo eziphezulu ze-semiconductor, kwaye ukukhutshwa kwe-3nm kunye ne-2nm iinkqubo eziphambili azinqunyelwe ukuba zibe phezulu, kwaye kunokubakho i-gap yokubonelela nge-10% ukuya kwi-20% kwi-2024 ~ 2025.
Loo nto yenza ukuba kube lula ukuba amaxabiso ehle.Zonke izalathisi zisixelela ukuba iitshiphusi ziyawa kwaye ishishini alikho lula njengoko libonakala.
02 Ingaba iitshiphusi zabathengi azithandeki?
Elinye icala lizolile, elinye aliphumeleli.
Iitshiphusi ze-elektroniki zabathengi ziye zadlula elona xesha lizukileyo leminyaka emibini yokuqala, kwaye ngokuhla kokusetyenziswa kwe-elektroniki, ekugqibeleni baye behla esibingelelweni.Okwangoku, iinkampani ezininzi ze-chip ziye zaqala ukuxakeka ekutshintsheni ishishini labo, ukusuka kubathengi ukuya kwiimoto kunye neendawo zobunjineli.I-TSMC idwelise imarike yeemoto njengeprojekthi ephambili kule minyaka imbalwa izayo, kwaye kuxelwe ukuba kwicala lelizwe, ishishini leemoto labadlali basekhaya be-MCU abanje ngeGigaDevice Innovation, iZhongying Electronics, kunye ne-AMEC nayo iya icaca ngakumbi. .
Ngokukodwa, i-GigaDevice ingene kwinqanaba lokuvavanya isampula yabathengi kunye nemveliso yokuqala ye-MCU yemoto ngo-Matshi, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ifezekise imveliso yobuninzi kulo nyaka;I-Zhongying Electronics isetyenziselwa ubukhulu becala inxalenye yolawulo lwe-MCU, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba ibuye phakathi enyakeni;I-AMEC Semiconductor ibonise ukuzimisela kwayo ukuphuhlisa iitshiphusi zeemoto kwi-prospectus yayo, kwaye i-IPO iceba ukunyusa i-yuan yezigidi ezingama-729, apho i-yuan ye-283 yezigidi iya kusetyenziselwa uphando lwe-auto-grade chip kunye neeprojekthi zophuhliso.
Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, inqanaba lendawo yekhompyuter yeemoto zasekhaya kunye neetshiphu zokulawula zingaphantsi kwe-1%, inqanaba lendawo yezivamvo lingaphantsi kwe-4%, kunye nenqanaba lendawo ye-semiconductors yamandla, inkumbulo kunye nonxibelelwano yi-8%, 8%, kwaye 3% ngokulandelelanayo.Ukwenziwa kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha asekhaya kuyingozi, kwaye yonke i-ecology ekrelekrele kubandakanya ukuqhuba ngokuzimela iya kudla inani elikhulu lee-semiconductors kwinqanaba lamva.
Kwaye kuya kuba nzima kangakanani ukuqhubeka nokunamathela kwiitshiphusi zabathengi?
Ngaphambili kwaxelwa ukuba i-Samsung ikhe yanqumamisa ukuthengwa kwazo zonke iiyunithi zeshishini, kubandakanya iiphaneli, iifowuni eziphathwayo kunye neetshiphusi zememori, kwaye uninzi lwabavelisi bememori yaseKorea baya kuthatha inyathelo lokunciphisa amaxabiso ngaphezulu kwe-5% ngokutshintshiselana nokuthengisa.I-Nuvoton Technology, ekhethekileyo kwi-electronics yabathengi, nayo yabona inzuzo yayo inyuka ngaphezu kwamaxesha e-5.5 kunyaka odlulileyo, ngenzuzo ye-NT $ 7.27 ngesabelo ngasinye.Ukusebenza kuthe tyaba ngo-Epreli nangoMeyi kulo nyaka, ngengeniso yehle nge-2.18% kunye ne-3.04% ngokulandelelanayo inyanga nenyanga.
Umntu akanakuchaza nantoni na, kodwa idatha ye-Wind ibonisa ukuba ukususela ngoMeyi 9, iinkampani ze-semiconductor ze-126 emhlabeni jikelele ziye zabhengeza iingxelo zabo zezemali kwikota yokuqala ye-2022, apho i-16 ifumene ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka kwinzuzo eseleyo okanye nokuba yilahleko.Iitshiphusi zabathengi ziyakukhawulezisa ukuwa kwazo, kwaye iimoto kunye nolawulo lwamashishini ziye zaba yindawo elandelayo yokufuna inzuzo kwimakethi yechip.
Kodwa ngaba ngokwenene ilula njengoko ibonakala?
Ngokukodwa kwabanye abavelisi be-chip basekhaya, ukuhamba ukusuka kwintsimi ye-electronics yabathengi ukuya kwintsimi yeemoto kungaphezulu kakhulu kobushushu bemarike.Okokuqala, ii-chips zasekhaya kufuneka zibe nezantsi, kwaye intsimi yabathengi iqala kuqala, ibalwa kwi-27%.Nokuba ujonga kwihlabathi, imarike yasekhaya ikwayeyona marike inkulu semiconductor, idatha ibonisa ukuba ngo-2021, intengiso ye-semiconductor yentengiso yaseTshayina yafikelela kwi-29.62 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika, ukwanda konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-58%, lilizwe lehlabathi. Imakethi enkulu ye-semiconductor, ibalelwa kwi-28.9% yentengiso yehlabathi jikelele ye-semiconductor.
Okwesibini, ishishini le-chip ngokwalo linomda omkhulu wenzuzo kwii-smartphones kunye neenkalo ezinxulumene ne-5G.Umzekelo, ukuthunyelwa kwe-TSMC kubalelwa kwi-70% yemarike ye-MCU yeemoto, kodwa iitshiphusi zeemoto zithatha kuphela i-3.31% yengeniso yayo ye-2020.Nge-Q1 2022, i-smartphone ye-TSMC kunye namacandelo e-HPC aya kwenza i-40% kunye ne-41% yengeniso eseleyo ngokulandelelana, ngelixa i-IOT imoto ye-DCE kunye nabanye baya kwenza kuphela i-8%, i-5%, i-3% kunye ne-3% ngokulandelanayo.
Imfuno ingaphantsi, kodwa inzuzo isekhona, kwaye ingxaki mhlawumbi yeyona ntloko inkulu kwimarike ye-semiconductor.
03 Emva kwe-boom, abathengi baxolile?
Xa ixabiso leetshiphusi lishukunyiswa, abona bonwaba ngabathengi, iiselfowuni, iimoto kunye nezixhobo zekhaya ezikrelekrele ziye zaba yindawo yecarnival ehlala ilindelwe emva kokuthotywa kwexabiso leetshipsi, ngakumbi iiselfowuni.Kungekudala emva kokuba i-avalanche yexabiso le-chip, bekukho abantu abakhwaza kumaqonga oluntu ukuba bathenge iifowuni eziphathwayo kwisiqingatha sesibini salo nyaka.
Ngokukhawuleza emva koko, ixabiso lamandla amatsha lancitshiswa, ixabiso leemveliso ze-elektroniki lancitshiswa, kwaye ixabiso lezinto zombane zasekhaya lancitshiswa… Amazwi afana nala ayeza.Nangona kunjalo, akukho mkhwa ucacileyo okwangoku ukuba kuya kubakho ukuhla kwexabiso elihambelanayo kwikhonkco lemveliso, kodwa ukuthetha ngokungafihlisiyo, eli gagasi lokunciphisa ixabiso le-chip aliyi kubangela ukuhla kwexabiso elikhulu kwimarike yabathengi.
Okokuqala jonga kwintsimi yeefowuni ezithintekayo kakhulu, kwiminyaka yamuva, abavelisi beefowuni eziphathwayo bahlala bephakamisa amaxabiso, ukuthula okuphantsi, i-swagger ephezulu, ithuba lokunciphisa ixabiso ixesha liphantsi kakhulu.Ukongeza, inzuzo enkulu yabavelisi befowuni yasekhaya ayizange ibe phezulu.KwiNkomfa yabaPhuhlisi beHuawei, uYang Haisong, usekela-mongameli weSebe lesoftware yabathengi beHuawei, wathi inzuzo yabavelisi beefowuni zaseTshayina iphantsi ngokulusizi, kwaye isabelo sentengiso yefowuni yasekhaya singaphezulu kwesiqingatha, kodwa inzuzo imalunga ne-10 kuphela. %.
Kwakhona, i-chip iphantsi ngokwenene, kodwa ixabiso lamanye amacandelo alihlonikanga kangako, njengezinto zoluvo kunye nezikrini, iimodeli eziphezulu zokugqibela ziya zisiba yinto eqhelekileyo, abavelisi beefowuni eziphathwayo kwiimfuno zekhonkco lokubonelela ngokwemvelo baqina ngakumbi nangakumbi. Kuxelwe ukuba i-OPPO, i-Xiaomi yakha yazenza ngokwezifiso izinzwa ezikhethekileyo kwi-Sony kunye ne-Samsung.
Ngale ndlela, kuyintsikelelo kubathengi ukuba ixabiso leefowuni eziphathwayo alinyuki.
Ukujonga amandla amatsha, i-chip yesiqhelo eyanciphisa ixabiso ngeli xesha ekuqaleni yayingekho kwintsimi yokwenziwa kweemoto, singasathethi ke, ukunyuka kwexabiso kwisangqa semoto yamandla entsha kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka kwakungekho, kwaye isizathu emva kwayo yayingeyiyo yonke ingxaki yetshiphu.Ixabiso lezinto ezininzi liyenyuka, nokuba liyi-nickel, insimbi, i-aluminium ebandakanya i-electrode efanelekileyo kunye ne-negative, ixabiso linyuka kuphela, ixabiso leebhetri lihlala liphezulu, kwaye izinto ezahlukahlukeneyo ngokucacileyo azinakwenziwa kuphela kwi-chip.
Ewe, isangqa sokwenza imoto asiyiyo imbuyekezo encinci ye-chip ayinakubonwa, kuba kulo nyaka, iitshiphusi ezikhupha ukukhanya kwe-LED kunye neetshiphusi zomqhubi zine-30% -40% yokuhla kwexabiso, okuya kudlala indima ethile ngokungathandabuzekiyo iindleko ezilandelayo zomnini wemoto.
Ukongeza kwii-smart phones, eyona mpembelelo inkulu yeetshiphusi zabathengi mhlawumbi zizixhobo zasekhaya ezikrelekrele ezifana nezipholileyo zomoya kunye neefriji, kwaye imfuno yee-MCU zezixhobo ezithathu eziphambili zasekhaya ezimhlophe ngenene ayiphantsi, ukusuka kwi-570 yezigidi ngo-2017 ukuya ngaphezulu kwama-700. izigidi ngo-2022, apho ii-MCU zomoya zomoya zithatha ngaphezu kwe-60%.
Nangona kunjalo, iitshiphusi ezisetyenziswa kwibala lekhaya elinobulumko ngokwesiseko ziitshiphusi ezinesiphelo esisezantsi ezineenkqubo ezibuyela ngasemva, ezichasene nediametrically kwiinkqubo eziphambili ezifana ne-3nm kunye ne-7nm, ziphezulu ngokubanzi kune-28nm okanye i-45nm.Uyazi, ezi chips zisetyenziswa ngokubanzi ngenxa yomxholo wabo ophantsi wobugcisa, kwaye ixabiso leyunithi aliphezulu.
Kwiinkampani zezixhobo zasekhaya, itekhnoloji ephantsi ithetha ukuba banokufikelela nokuzimela.Kwi-2017, icandelo le-microelectronics ye-Gree yasekwa;Kwi-2018, i-Konka ibhengeze ukusekwa ngokusemthethweni kwecandelo lobugcisa be-semiconductors;Ngo-2018, iMidea yabhengeza ukungena kwayo kwimveliso yetshiphu kwaye yaseka iMeiren Semiconductor Co., Ltd., kwaye ngoJanuwari 2021, iMeiken Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. yasekwa, kunye nesikali sangoku sonyaka sokuvelisa malunga ne-10 yezigidi zeetshiphusi ze-MCU.
Ngokwezibalo ezingaphelelanga, iinkampani ezininzi zezixhobo zasekhaya ezifana ne-TCL, i-Konka, i-Skyworth, kunye ne-Haier ziye zabeka intsimi ye-semiconductor, ngamanye amazwi, le ntsimi ayinyanzelwanga yi-chips nonke.
Phantsi, okanye hayi phantsi?Oku kuncitshiswa kwexabiso le-chip kufana nokudutyulwa kobuxoki, abavelisi abaphezulu abonwabanga okwethutyana, bayeke abathengi.
Ixesha lokuposa: Dec-29-2022